- CHI1 – First game of the season with no pre season and many players not played real competition in months. TB should be chalky given the CHI matchup. With the lack of data and so many unknowns it’s possible TB takes this matchup lightly and CHI comes out with something to prove. Kane $7100 is a bit cheap. Strome $3100 will be leaned on for 1C duties. Debrincat $4200 should see decent shot volume, his finishing was not great last year but had the chances. Keith $4200 is a good option too. I’ll start with Kane/Strome which gives you extra salary to get to some of the big names.
- Hoffman – not much to be said here. hoffman @ $3200 is way too cheap. In fact he ranks 5th in the sonk model over the last 25 gp. don’t over think this one. Sometimes you play the chalk.
- Edm PP – Edm pp clicked at over 30% last year, one of the highest in league history. Mcdavid $8400, Draisatl $7900 and a value Barrie $4400 is a nice stack. Barrie was poor on TOR PP but should have something to prove on a 1 year deal. If you want exposure to the even strength lines then drop Drai and put in Nugent-Hopkins $6900. Exposure to even strength is warranted given VAN chances given up 5v5.
- Matthews $8200 – Using CHI value will allow some big spending. Opening night I’ll sway Matthews. AM34 has scored every opening night since being in the league. Mackinnon is the other top option imo. Both TOR and COL have last change but STL is better at limiting chances than MTL. Matthews it is.
- I’m not confident on any specific fade plays given this is first game back after a long layoff. There is a ton of uncertainty with first game back. The one thing I am playing is a fade on PIT. PHI has some of the best defensive numbers at home in 2019-2020 and hart looks to be the real deal.
Sonk of the Night
- Subban $6900 – TBL should see strong ownership. Everyone will be rusty coming into this one, one not give a shot at the massive upside in Subban?
- Hamonic $2500- Only if you need a min priced option. I think Hamonic should have a strong chance at shot bonus. He’ll get ample playing time alongside Hughes and be leaned on for PK duties.